论文标题
全球变暖对西地中海海草的影响：迈向基于代理的建模方法
The effect of global warming on Western Mediterranean seagrasses: towards an agent-based modelling approach
论文作者
论文摘要
海草是沿海生态系统中的关键结构元素，研究温度如何影响这些物种对于预测全球变暖的含义至关重要。在这项工作中，我们使用基于经验的数值模型来研究{\ it posidonia oceanica}和{\ it cymodocea nodosa}的组合动力学及其对海上变暖的韧性。该模型使用在地中海西部测得的海草生长速率进行参数化。在有利的生长条件下，我们的模拟预测了共存区域在单特异性草地之间的前部的出现。该区域的特征是其宽度和局部芽密度，这些密度取决于{\ it posidonia oceanica}和{\ it cymodocea nodosa}物种之间的耦合参数。在Ses Olles de Son Saura（Balearic群岛，地中海西海）中，已经在经验上观察到了此类地区。研究地点的现场测量与模型预测之间的比较已用于符合耦合参数的值。现场数据还将共存区域的宽度与{\ it posidonia oceanica}叶片的平均长度相关联。值得注意的是，在耦合参数和叶长度之间发现了线性关系。在存在海暖的情况下，该模型预测{\ it posidonia oceanica}人群的指数衰减，该{\ it posidonia oceanica}对温度高度敏感。这种行为是植物克隆性质的直接结果，可以以模型参数为特征。考虑到高温室排放的情况，我们的模型预测{\ it Posidonia oceanica} Meadows将在$ 2050美元的一年中损失70美元的人口。 {\ it cymodocea nodosa}具有较高的热弹性，充当了一种机会性物种，征服了被降解的{\ it posidonia posidonia oceanica}所留下的空间。
Seagrasses are key structural elements in coastal ecosystems, and studying how temperature affects these species is crucial to anticipate the implications of global warming. In this work, we use an empirically-based numerical model to study the combined dynamics of {\it Posidonia oceanica} and {\it Cymodocea nodosa} and their resilience to sea warming. The model is parametrised using seagrass growth rates measured at the Western Mediterranean Sea. Under favorable growth conditions, our simulations predict the emergence of a coexistence region at the front between mono-specific meadows. This region can be characterised by its width and local shoot densities, which are found to depend on the coupling parameter between {\it Posidonia oceanica} and {\it Cymodocea nodosa} species. Such regions have been empirically observed in Ses Olles de Son Saura (Balearic Islands, Western Mediterranean Sea). A comparison between the field measurements at the study site with the model predictions has been used to fit the value of the coupling parameter. Field data also relates the width of the coexistence region to the average length of {\it Posidonia oceanica} leaves at the front. Remarkably, a linear relationship is found between the coupling parameter and the leaf length. In the presence of sea warming, the model predicts an exponential decay in the population of {\it Posidonia oceanica}, which is highly sensitive to temperature. This behaviour is a direct consequence of the clonal nature of the plant and can be characterised by the model parameters. Considering a scenario of high greenhouse emissions, our model forecasts that {\it Posidonia oceanica} meadows will lose 70$\%$ of their population by the year $2050$. {\it Cymodocea nodosa}, with higher thermal resilience, acts as an opportunistic species conquering the space left by the degraded {\it Posidonia oceanica}.
