论文标题
地球系统在人类世的混乱行为
Chaotic Behaviour of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
论文作者
论文摘要
结果表明，由于人类活动的影响，地球系统可以表现出混乱的行为。我们的论点是基于以下假设：ES可以由Landau-Ginzburg模型描述，该模型本身可以预测ES通过相空间中的常规轨迹发展，朝着有限的人为驱动的影响，朝着Hothouse Earth情景。此外，我们发现，如果人类影响遵循逻辑图，温度波动的平衡点可以表现出分叉和混乱的模式。我们的最终分析包括行星边界不同项之间的相互作用，以评估我们的模型的可预测性。
It is shown that the Earth System (ES) can, due to the impact of human activities, exhibit chaotic behaviour. Our arguments are based on the assumption that the ES can be described by a Landau-Ginzburg model, which, in itself, predicts that the ES evolves through regular trajectories in phase space towards a Hothouse Earth scenario under a finite amount of human-driven impact. Furthermore, we find that the equilibrium point for temperature fluctuations can exhibit bifurcations and a chaotic pattern if human impact follows a logistic map. Our final analysis includes interactions between different terms of the planetary boundaries in order to gauge the predictability of our model.
