论文标题
避免出色的过滤器：预测人类到达Kardashev I型文明的时间表
Avoiding the Great Filter: Predicting the Timeline for Humanity to Reach Kardashev Type I Civilization
论文作者
论文摘要
任何文明的技术发展水平都可以在很大程度上通过它们供使用的能量来衡量，但也包括文明对本国世界的管理。按照Kardashev的定义，I型文明能够存储和使用其星球上所有可用的能量。在这项研究中，我们开发了一个基于Carl Sagan的K公式的模型，并使用该模型分析了三种最重要的能源的消耗和能源供应：化石燃料（例如，煤炭，石油，石油，天然气，原油，NGL和原料），核能和可再生能源。我们还考虑了联合国气候变化，国际能源机构的框架框架公约以及我们计算的特定的环境限制，以预测人类何时达到I型I型文明的水平。我们的发现表明，这一天的最佳估计要等到2371年才得出。
The level of technological development of any civilization can be gaged in large part by the amount of energy they produce for their use, but also encompasses that civilization's stewardship of their home world. Following the Kardashev definition, a Type I civilization is able to store and use all the energy available on its planet. In this study, we develop a model based on Carl Sagan's K formula and use this model to analyze the consumption and energy supply of the three most important energy sources: fossil fuels (e.g., coal, oil, natural gas, crude, NGL and feedstocks), nuclear energy and renewable energy. We also consider environmental limitations suggested by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the International Energy Agency, and those specific to our calculations to predict when humanity will reach the level of a Kardashev scale Type I civilization. Our findings suggest that the best estimate for this day will not come until year 2371.
