论文标题

实验室地震的随机混乱和可预测性

Stochastic Chaos and Predictability in Laboratory Earthquakes

论文作者

Gualandi, Adriano, Faranda, Davide, Marone, Chris, Cocco, Massimo, Mengaldo, Gianmarco

论文摘要

实验室地震表现出低维随机吸引子的特征,其维度类似于自然慢速地震。基于速率和国家依赖性摩擦的随机微分方程模型解释了实验室观察。我们研究了从稳定滑动到棒状运动事件的过渡,并发现在压力状态下的小扰动可以解释到周期性行为。摩擦的非线性性质会放大小尺度扰动,从而降低了原本周期性的宏观动力学的可预测性。

Laboratory earthquakes exhibit characteristics of a low dimensional random attractor with a dimension similar to that of natural slow earthquakes. A model of stochastic differential equations based on rate and state-dependent friction explains the laboratory observations. We study the transition from stable sliding to stickslip events and find that aperiodic behavior can be explained by small perturbations in the stress state. Friction's nonlinear nature amplifies small scale perturbations, reducing the predictability of the otherwise periodic macroscopic dynamics.

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