论文标题

拆分保形预测和非交换数据

Split Conformal Prediction and Non-Exchangeable Data

论文作者

Oliveira, Roberto I., Orenstein, Paulo, Ramos, Thiago, Romano, João Vitor

论文摘要

拆分保形预测(CP)可以说是不确定性量化的最流行的CP方法,既可以享受学术兴趣又广泛地部署。但是,分裂CP的原始理论分析使数据交换性的关键假设妨碍了许多现实世界的应用。在本文中,我们提出了一个基于浓度不平等和数据耦合属性的新理论框架,证明分裂CP通过增加较小的覆盖范围罚款而对许多不可交换的过程仍然有效。通过使用真实数据和合成数据的实验,我们表明我们的理论结果转化为在非外观性的情况下,例如时间序列和时空数据下的良好经验性能。与最近旨在应对特定交换性违规行为的共形算法相比,我们表明,分裂CP在覆盖范围和间隔尺寸方面具有竞争力,其好处是非常简单,并且比替代方案更快。

Split conformal prediction (CP) is arguably the most popular CP method for uncertainty quantification, enjoying both academic interest and widespread deployment. However, the original theoretical analysis of split CP makes the crucial assumption of data exchangeability, which hinders many real-world applications. In this paper, we present a novel theoretical framework based on concentration inequalities and decoupling properties of the data, proving that split CP remains valid for many non-exchangeable processes by adding a small coverage penalty. Through experiments with both real and synthetic data, we show that our theoretical results translate to good empirical performance under non-exchangeability, e.g., for time series and spatiotemporal data. Compared to recent conformal algorithms designed to counter specific exchangeability violations, we show that split CP is competitive in terms of coverage and interval size, with the benefit of being extremely simple and orders of magnitude faster than alternatives.

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