论文标题
Kepler-1708 B-I可能无法与HST检测到
Kepler-1708 b-i is likely undetectable with HST
论文作者
论文摘要
最近使用两次开普勒数据传输来报告Exomoon候选Kepler-1708 B-1。在1％的假阳性概率的支持下，候选人有希望，但需要进行后续观察以确认/拒绝其有效性。在本文中，我们考虑了Exomoon候选人过境的可检测性，最特别是在下一个窗口（2023年3月）使用Hubble Space望远镜（HST）上的WFC3仪器。使用逼真的噪声估计，考虑访问潮流的趋势以及使用开普勒数据得出的模型后期传播，我们使用贝叶斯模型选择进行了75次注射回收试验。将成功的检测定义为符合贝叶斯因子，AIC和检索到的参数误差的阈值的检测，在单独考虑HST数据时，我们的75次注射中只有7次被恢复。这意味着真正的阳性概率（TPP）为$ 10 \ pm3 $％。尽管HST优于开普勒，但仪器系统学和候选外事物轨道的紧凑性通常都会掩盖强烈的检测。尽管詹姆斯·韦伯（James Webb）空间望远镜（JWST）的噪声属性尚未在飞行中表征，但我们估计信号将使用在其明亮对象时间序列模式下运行的NIRSPEC轻松恢复。
The exomoon candidate Kepler-1708 b-i was recently reported using two transits of Kepler data. Supported by a 1% false-positive probability, the candidate is promising but requires follow-up observations to confirm/reject its validity. In this paper, we consider the detectability of the exomoon candidate's transit, most specifically in the next window (March 2023) using the WFC3 instrument aboard the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Using realistic noise estimates, accounting for the visit-long trends, and propagating the model posteriors derived using the Kepler data, we perform 75 injection-recovery trials with Bayesian model selection. Defining a successful detection as one which meets thresholds of the Bayes factor, AIC, and error of the retrieved parameters, only 7 of our 75 injections were recovered when considering HST data alone. This implies a true-positive probability (TPP) of $10\pm3$%. Despite HST's superior aperture to Kepler, both instrumental systematics and the compactness of the candidate exomoon's orbit typically obfuscate a strong detection. Although the noise properties of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) have not yet been characterized in flight, we estimate the signal would be easily recovered using NIRSpec operating in its Bright Object Time Series mode.
