论文标题
区域间流动性在预测SARS-COV-2传输中的作用
The role of inter-regional mobility in forecasting SARS-CoV-2 transmission
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们提出了一种预测SARS-COV-2跨区域的传播的方法，重点是移动性。以前已显示出流动性在病毒的扩散中起着重要作用，尤其是在区域之间。在这里，我们调查了哪些流行病学环境将迁移率纳入传输模型的准确性可以提高预测的准确性，在2020年第一次传播期间和之后，我们将荷兰的情况作为案例研究。我们在详细的市政当局（而不是在全国范围内）评估预测质量。为了建模传输，我们使用一个简单的迁移率增强的SEIR隔室模型，其亚种群与荷兰市政当局相对应。我们使用通勤信息来量化移动性，并根据最大似然估计来开发一种方法，以确定其他相关参数。我们表明，考虑区域间流动性通常会改善预测质量。但是，在有时制定旨在减少接触或旅行的政策时，此改进非常小。
In this paper, we present a method to forecast the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across regions with a focus on the role of mobility. Mobility has previously been shown to play a significant role in the spread of the virus, particularly between regions. Here, we investigate under which epidemiological circumstances incorporating mobility into transmission models yields improvements in the accuracy of forecasting, where we take the situation in the Netherlands during and after the first wave of transmission in 2020 as a case study. We assess the quality of forecasting on the detailed level of municipalities, instead of on a nation-wide level. To model transmissions, we use a simple mobility-enhanced SEIR compartmental model with subpopulations corresponding to the Dutch municipalities. We use commuter information to quantify mobility, and develop a method based on maximum likelihood estimation to determine the other relevant parameters. We show that taking inter-regional mobility into account generally leads to an improvement in forecast quality. However, at times when policies are in place that aim to reduce contacts or travel, this improvement is very small.
