论文标题
媒介传播疾病的随机家庭模型
A stochastic household model for vector-borne diseases
论文作者
论文摘要
我们引入了一个随机家庭模型，以供媒介传播疾病，尤其是与属于埃德斯属的突出媒介相关的，因此是Zika，Chikungunya和登革热病毒。在此模型中，向量仍然是每个家庭的本地，而主机在家庭中的一部分时间以及人口中剩余的比例都是随机的。这是通过两种分支过程近似的，使我们能够有效计算许多有用的流行病学特征，例如生殖数量，早期生长速率和家庭型比例，后代分布，重大暴发的概率和内部室内最终大小分布。我们比较了喷雾的控制干预措施 - 减少每个家庭中的向量数量 - 以及社交势不足的 - 让个人在家里花费更多的时间 - 在这些特征上。
We introduce a stochastic household model for vector-borne diseases, in particular as relevant to prominent vectors belonging to the Aedes genus and hence the Zika, chikungunya, and dengue viruses. In this model, vectors remain local to each household, while hosts mix for a proportion of their time in their household and the remaining proportion in the population at random. This is approximated with a two-type branching process, allowing us to efficiently calculate a number of useful epidemiological characteristics, such as reproductive numbers, early growth rates and household-type proportions, offspring distributions, probabilities of a major outbreak, and within-household final size distributions. We compare control interventions of spraying -- reducing the number of vectors in each household -- and social-distancing -- having individuals spend more time at home -- in terms of these characteristics.
