论文标题
SIRVVD模型的理论分析可洞悉日本Covid-19/SARS-COV-2疫苗接种的目标率
Theoretical Analysis of SIRVVD Model to Provide Insight on the Target Rate of COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination in Japan
论文作者
论文摘要
对于Covid-19，第一剂量和第二剂量疫苗的有效性不同。因此，已经提出了可以代表第一和第二疫苗接种剂量的状态的易感感染回收的 - vaccination1-vaccination2-Death（SIRVVD）模型。通过先前的研究，我们可以根据SIRVVD模型的第一剂和第二剂量的疫苗接种的影响来模拟传染病的传播。但是，SIRVVD模型的理论分析不足。因此，我们通过将易感人群和接种疫苗的人的数量视为参数，从而获得了传染性数量的分析表达。我们使用该解决方案来确定疫苗接种的目标速率，以减少日本的COVID-19 Delta变体（B.1.617）的感染数量。此外，我们研究了与COVID-19 Delta变体相比，具有强或弱变体病例的靶疫苗接种率（B.1.617）。这项研究有助于SIRVVD模型的数学发展，并深入了解疫苗接种的目标率以减少感染的数量。
The effectiveness of the first and second dose vaccinations are different for COVID-19; therefore, a susceptible-infected-recovered-vaccination1-vaccination2-death (SIRVVD) model that can represent the states of the first and second vaccination doses has been proposed. By the previous study, we can carry out simulating the spread of infectious disease considering the effects of the first and second doses of the vaccination based on the SIRVVD model. However, theoretical analysis of the SIRVVD Model is insufficient. Therefore, we obtained an analytical expression of the infectious number, by treating the numbers of susceptible persons and vaccinated persons as parameters. We used the solution to determine the target rate of the vaccination for decreasing the infection numbers of the COVID-19 Delta variant (B.1.617) in Japan. Further, we investigated the target vaccination rates for cases with strong or weak variants by comparison with the COVID-19 Delta variant (B.1.617). This study contributes to the mathematical development of the SIRVVD model and provides insight into the target rate of the vaccination to decrease the number of infections.
