论文标题
估计英格兰养老院居民中瞬时和整体案件死亡风险的新方法
Novel methods for estimating the instantaneous and overall COVID-19 case fatality risk among care home residents in England
论文作者
论文摘要
Covid-19-19的大流行在全球老年人和脆弱的人，尤其是在养老院中的死亡率很高。这是由于难以将护理院与更广泛的社区，护理设施内（相对于典型家庭）以及居民的年龄/脆弱性隔离的困难而驱动的。为了量化疾病带来的死亡风险，病例死亡风险（CFR）是重要的工具。这量化了导致死亡的病例的比例。在整个大流行中，英格兰的养老院居民中的CFR受到密切监测。为了估计CFR，我们将新颖的方法和现有方法应用于由英格兰公共卫生和护理质量委员会收集的护理院死亡数据的数据。我们比较这些不同的方法，评估它们的相对优势和劣势。使用这些方法，我们估计了瞬时CFR（每天和每周决议）和整个英格兰的总体CFR的时间趋势，并在区域层面上进行了分类。我们还研究了CFR如何根据年龄和所需的护理类型来变化，通过护理院是否包括护理人员和居民的年龄来散布。这项工作有助于用于监测英国流行病的措施摘要。
The COVID-19 pandemic has had high mortality rates in the elderly and frail worldwide, particularly in care homes. This is driven by the difficulty of isolating care homes from the wider community, the large population sizes within care facilities (relative to typical households), and the age/frailty of the residents. To quantify the mortality risk posed by disease, the case fatality risk (CFR) is an important tool. This quantifies the proportion of cases that result in death. Throughout the pandemic, CFR amongst care home residents in England has been monitored closely. To estimate CFR, we apply both novel and existing methods to data on deaths in care homes, collected by Public Health England and the Care Quality Commission. We compare these different methods, evaluating their relative strengths and weaknesses. Using these methods, we estimate temporal trends in the instantaneous CFR (at both daily and weekly resolutions) and the overall CFR across the whole of England, and dis-aggregated at regional level. We also investigate how the CFR varies based on age and on the type of care required, dis-aggregating by whether care homes include nursing staff and by age of residents. This work has contributed to the summary of measures used for monitoring the UK epidemic.
