论文标题
媒介传播疾病与非平稳媒介种群:种群增长和衰减的情况
Vector-borne diseases with non-stationary vector populations: the case of growing and decaying populations
论文作者
论文摘要
自上个世纪以来,确定性的隔室模型已成为预测和控制流行病暴发的强大工具,在许多情况下,有助于减轻其影响。这些模型的关键数量是所谓的基本繁殖数量,该数量测量了完全易感人群中初始感染者产生的二次感染的数量。已经开发了一些方法来直接计算该数量,只要有些条件得到满足,因此该模型具有无病前的无病平衡状态。只有当种群静止时,这种情况才能满足。就媒介传播疾病而言,这意味着矢量的出生和死亡率需要平衡,在许多现实情况下,矢量种群生长或减少的现实情况下无法实现。在这里,我们开发了一种媒介传播的流行模型,具有增长和腐烂的载体种群,并研究了计算$ r_0 $的标准方法工作的条件,并在失败时讨论替代方案。我们还表明,与固定载体种群相比,增长的载体种群会延迟流行动力学。最后,我们讨论了可以将模型减少到更少的隔室和参数的SIR模型的条件,这有助于解决许多矢量传播流行模型的参数无法识别的问题。
Since the last century, deterministic compartmental models have emerged as powerful tools to predict and control epidemic outbreaks, in many cases helping to mitigate their impacts. A key quantity for these models is the so-called Basic Reproduction Number, that measures the number of secondary infections produced by an initial infected individual in a fully susceptible population. Some methods have been developed to allow the direct computation of this quantity provided that some conditions are fulfilled, such that the model has a pre-pandemic disease-free equilibrium state. This condition is only fulfilled when the populations are stationary. In the case of vector-borne diseases, this implies that the vector birth and death rates need to be balanced, what is not fulfilled in many realistic cases in which the vector population grow or decrease. Here we develop a vector-borne epidemic model with growing and decaying vector populations and study the conditions under which the standard methods to compute $R_0$ work and discuss an alternative when they fail. We also show that growing vector populations produce a delay in the epidemic dynamics when compared to the case of the stationary vector population. Finally, we discuss the conditions under which the model can be reduced to the SIR model with fewer compartments and parameters, which helps in solving the problem of parameter unidentifiability of many vector-borne epidemic models.