论文标题
评估隔离措施对COVID-19的影响
Evaluating the impact of quarantine measures on COVID-19 spread
论文作者
论文摘要
在Covid-19-19大流行的早期，许多国家实施了非药物干预措施（NPI）来控制SARS-COV-2的传播，即Covid-19的病原体。在这些NPI中，隔离措施被广泛采用和实施居住命令。理解隔离措施的有效性可以为持续的19日大流行期间的决策和控制计划提供依据，并为未来的疾病暴发。在这项研究中，我们使用数学模型来评估隔离措施在2020年春季经历大规模爆发的四个城市中的隔离措施对Covid-19的影响：武汉，纽约，米兰和伦敦。我们开发了一种易感性暴露于感染的（SEIR）型模型，其中具有隔离的成分，并将这种疾病传播模型与数据同化方法融为一体。通过将模型校准到案例数据，我们在每个城市锁定之前估算关键的流行病学参数。我们进一步研究了使用模型模拟锁定后隔离率对COVID-19的影响的影响。结果表明，易感和暴露的个体和未发现感染的隔离是要遏制疫情；但是，可以通过更快地隔离确认病例来降低这些人群的隔离率。我们生成反事实模拟以估计隔离措施的有效性。没有隔离措施，累积的确认病例可能是劳汉，纽约，米兰和伦敦的40天内的40天内报告的数字73、22、43和93倍。我们的发现强调了检疫在大流行的早期阶段的重要作用。
During the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen of COVID-19. Among those NPIs, quarantine measures were widely adopted and enforced through stay-at-home and shelter-in-place orders. Understanding the effectiveness of quarantine measures can inform decision-making and control planning during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and for future disease outbreaks. In this study, we use mathematical models to evaluate the impact of quarantine measures on COVID-19 spread in four cities that experienced large-scale outbreaks in the spring of 2020: Wuhan, New York, Milan, and London. We develop a susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR)-type model with a component of quarantine and couple this disease transmission model with a data assimilation method. By calibrating the model to case data, we estimate key epidemiological parameters before lockdown in each city. We further examine the impact of quarantine rates on COVID-19 spread after lockdown using model simulations. Results indicate that quarantine of susceptible and exposed individuals and undetected infections is necessary to contain the outbreak; however, the quarantine rates for these populations can be reduced through faster isolation of confirmed cases. We generate counterfactual simulations to estimate effectiveness of quarantine measures. Without quarantine measures, the cumulative confirmed cases could be 73, 22, 43 and 93 times higher than reported numbers within 40 days after lockdown in Wuhan, New York, Milan, and London. Our findings underscore the essential role of quarantine during the early phase of the pandemic.
