论文标题
确认偏差的数学模型
Mathematical models of confirmation bias
论文作者
论文摘要
确认偏见是一种认知偏见，会对管理决策产生不利影响，数学建模是对其详细理解的帮助。意见更新有关参数价值的偏见在此建模，假设观察结果取决于其与先前意见的距离。这些模型允许信仰的持久性，态度两极分化以及可以探索的非理性首要效果。给出了探索这些模型的大样本特性的一般框架，并尝试对模型进行分类。一个有趣的结果是，在某些模型中，观察的影响总是随距先前意见的距离而增加，而在其他观察中，观察结果与先前的观点大致相反。这些模型对于那些详细探讨这些现象的人可能很有用。
Confirmation bias is a cognitive bias that adversely affects management decisions, and mathematical modelling is an aid to its detailed understanding. Bias in opinion update about the value of a parameter is modelled here assuming that observations are discounted depending on their distance from prior opinion. The models allow belief persistence, attitude polarization, and the irrational primacy effect to be explored. A general framework for exploring large-sample properties of these models is given, and an attempt made to classify the models. An interesting result is that in some models the influence of an observation always increases with distance from the prior opinion, whereas in others observations greatly at odds with prior opinion are given very little weight. The models could be useful to those exploring these phenomena in detail.
