论文标题
人口可行的后验信仰
A Population's Feasible Posterior Beliefs
论文作者
论文摘要
我们考虑了一群贝叶斯特工，他们在某些有限的状态空间上共有共同的先前，并且每个代理商都会接触到有关该州的一些信息。我们询问有关人口中后代信仰的经验分布的哪些分布是可行的。我们为可行性提供了必要的条件。我们将此结果应用于多个域。首先，我们研究了最大化人群信仰两极分化的问题。其次，我们提供了后代可行的代理对称产品分布的表征。最后，我们研究了一个私人贝叶斯说服问题的实例，并为发件人的最佳价值提供了干净的公式。
We consider a population of Bayesian agents who share a common prior over some finite state space and each agent is exposed to some information about the state. We ask which distributions over empirical distributions of posteriors beliefs in the population are feasible. We provide a necessary and sufficient condition for feasibility. We apply this result in several domains. First, we study the problem of maximizing the polarization of beliefs in a population. Second, we provide a characterization of the feasible agent-symmetric product distributions of posteriors. Finally, we study an instance of a private Bayesian persuasion problem and provide a clean formula for the sender's optimal value.
