论文标题
英国Covid-19的医院需求和容量干预方法
A hospital demand and capacity intervention approach for COVID-19 in the UK
论文作者
论文摘要
文献中缓解流行病和流行病的干预措施的数学解释通常涉及找到最佳时间来发起干预和/或使用感染来管理影响。尽管这些方法在理论上可能起作用,但为了实施,它们可能需要可能无法获得的信息,而这种信息可能在流行病中,或者可能需要有关社区中感染水平的无可挑剔的数据。实际上,测试和案例数据仅与实施政策和个人的合规性一样好,这意味着从提供的数据中了解感染水平变得困难或复杂。在本文中,我们旨在为干预措施的数学建模开发一种不同的方法,而不是基于最佳性,而是基于必须每天处理流行病的地方当局的需求和能力。特别是,我们使用数据驱动的建模来校准易感的裸露感染感染恢复(SEIR-D)模型来推断参数,该参数描述了英国地区流行病的动力学。我们使用校准的参数来预测场景,并了解医院医疗服务的最大能力,干预措施的时间,干预措施的严重程度以及释放干预措施的条件如何影响整体流行病。
The mathematical interpretation of interventions for the mitigation of epidemics and pandemics in the literature often involves finding the optimal time to initiate an intervention and/or the use of infections to manage impact. Whilst these methods may work in theory, in order to implement they may require information which is likely not available whilst one is in the midst of an epidemic, or they may require impeccable data about infection levels in the community. In practice, testing and cases data is only as good as the policy of implementation and the compliance of the individuals, which means that understanding the levels of infections becomes difficult or complicated from the data that is provided. In this paper, we aim to develop a different approach to the mathematical modelling of interventions, not based on optimality, but based on demand and capacity of local authorities who have to deal with the epidemic on a day to day basis. In particular, we use data-driven modelling to calibrate an Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered-Died (SEIR-D) model to infer parameters that depict the dynamics of the epidemic in a region of the UK. We use the calibrated parameters for forecasting scenarios and understand, given a maximum capacity of hospital healthcare services, how the timing of interventions, severity of interventions, and conditions for the releasing of interventions affect the overall epidemic-picture.