论文标题
群体隔离无症状散布器:一项基于代理的仿真研究在孟买郊区铁路上
Cohorting to isolate asymptomatic spreaders: An agent-based simulation study on the Mumbai Suburban Railway
论文作者
论文摘要
孟买郊区铁路,\ emph {当地人},是城市的关键运输基础设施,对于恢复正常的经济活动至关重要。为了减少疾病的传播,决策者可以强制执行减少面具的拥挤和授权。 \ emph {cohorting} - 组成总是一起旅行的旅行者组,是减少\ textit {locals {locals}的疾病传播的另一项政策,而无需严格的限制。队列使我们可以:($ i $)形成旅行者气泡,从而减少随着时间的推移不同互动的数量; ($ ii $)如果检测到单个案例,可能会隔离整个队列,从而使联系人更有效,并且($ iii $)目标同类群体用于测试和早期发现有症状和无症状病例。由于随之而来的代表性复杂性,使用隔室模型研究队列的影响很具有挑战性。基于代理的模型提供了一种自然的方式来代表队列以及与较大社交网络的同类成员的代表。本文介绍了一种新型的基于多尺度的代理模型,以研究队列策略对孟买Covid-19动力学的影响。我们通过使用由1,240万代理商组成的详细代理模型对孟买城市地区进行建模来实现这一目标。使用局部平均场近似值对当地人旅行时的各个队列及其间相互作用进行建模。与详细的疾病传播和干预模拟器一起,由此产生的多尺度模型用于评估各种队列策略。结果提供了队列规模及其对疾病动态和福祉的影响之间的定量权衡。结果表明,队列可以在减少传输方面提供显着好处,而不会显着影响乘客率和 /或经济\&社会活动。
The Mumbai Suburban Railways, \emph{locals}, are a key transit infrastructure of the city and is crucial for resuming normal economic activity. To reduce disease transmission, policymakers can enforce reduced crowding and mandate wearing of masks. \emph{Cohorting} -- forming groups of travelers that always travel together, is an additional policy to reduce disease transmission on \textit{locals} without severe restrictions. Cohorting allows us to: ($i$) form traveler bubbles, thereby decreasing the number of distinct interactions over time; ($ii$) potentially quarantine an entire cohort if a single case is detected, making contact tracing more efficient, and ($iii$) target cohorts for testing and early detection of symptomatic as well as asymptomatic cases. Studying impact of cohorts using compartmental models is challenging because of the ensuing representational complexity. Agent-based models provide a natural way to represent cohorts along with the representation of the cohort members with the larger social network. This paper describes a novel multi-scale agent-based model to study the impact of cohorting strategies on COVID-19 dynamics in Mumbai. We achieve this by modeling the Mumbai urban region using a detailed agent-based model comprising of 12.4 million agents. Individual cohorts and their inter-cohort interactions as they travel on locals are modeled using local mean field approximations. The resulting multi-scale model in conjunction with a detailed disease transmission and intervention simulator is used to assess various cohorting strategies. The results provide a quantitative trade-off between cohort size and its impact on disease dynamics and well being. The results show that cohorts can provide significant benefit in terms of reduced transmission without significantly impacting ridership and or economic \& social activity.