论文标题

深度脱碳和超级格里德,欧洲与中国之间电力传播的前景

Deep decarbonization and the Supergrid, prospects for electricity transmission between Europe and China

论文作者

Reichenberg, Lina, Hedenus, Fredrik, Mattsson, Niclas, Verendel, Vilhelm

论文摘要

大陆内部的长距离传输已被证明是可再生能源系统中最重要的变化管理策略之一,其中允许传输扩展将使系统成本降低约20%。在本文中,我们测试当传输扩展到洲际连接时,系统成本是否进一步降低。我们使用每小时时间分辨率的容量扩展模型分析了中国,亚洲和欧洲之间的欧亚互连。该模型受到二氧化碳排放量越来越紧密的全球限制的约束,以研究不同水平对可变源的依赖的影响。我们的结果表明,与大陆电网集成相比,超级格式选项可将总系统成本降低5%。当(i)(i)几乎完全由可再生能源构成(ii)VRE农场可用的土地相对较高且需求相对较高,并且(iii)太阳能光伏和存储的成本很高时,就会实现这种最大效果。这两个因素的重要性是通过超级电网允许利用远程风能,太阳能和水力资源以及变化管理的重要性,这两者仅在可调度资源有限或非常昂贵的情况下才是结果。至于存储成本的重要性,它代表了一种竞争性的变化管理选项,并且当它具有低成本时,它代替了超级格里德(SuperGrid)的一部分,即通过长距离贸易来管理变化。与大陆尺度网格的成本相比,发现欧亚超级格里德的成本降低在0%至5%之间。我们得出的结论是,从技术经济的角度来看,超级格里德的好处在大多数情况下是可以忽略的,或者充其量是谦虚的。17页,f

Long distance transmission within continents has been shown to be one of the most important variation management strategies in renewable energy systems, where allowing for transmission expansion will reduce system cost by around 20%. In this paper, we test whether the system cost further decreases when transmission is extended to intercontinental connections. We analyze a Eurasian interconnection between China, Mid-Asia and Europe, using a capacity expansion model with hourly time resolution. The model is constrained by an increasingly tighter global cap on CO2 emissions in order to investigate the effect of different levels of reliance on variable sources. Our results show that a supergrid option decreases total system cost by a maximum of 5%, compared to continental grid integration. This maximum effect is achieved when (i) the generation is constrained to be made up almost entirely by renewables, (ii) the land available for VRE farms is relatively limited and the demand is relatively high and (iii) the cost for solar PV and storage is high. The importance of these two factors is explained by that a super grid allows for harnessing of remote wind-, solar- and hydro resources as well as management of variations, both of which are consequential only in cases where dispatchable resources are limited or very costly. As for the importance of the cost for storage, it represents a competing variation management option, and when it has low cost, it substitutes part of the role of the supergrid, which is to manage variations through long-distance trade. The cost decrease from a Eurasian supergrid was found to be between 0% and 5%, compared to the cost in the case of continental-scale grids. We conclude that the benefits of a supergrid from a techno-economic perspective are in most cases negligible, or modest at best.17 pages, f

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