论文标题

特征加权混合的幼稚贝叶斯模型,用于监测热电厂风扇系统中的异常

A Feature Weighted Mixed Naive Bayes Model for Monitoring Anomalies in the Fan System of a Thermal Power Plant

论文作者

Wang, Min, Sheng, Li, Zhou, Donghua, Chen, Maoyin

论文摘要

随着智能和整合的增加,大量的两个价值变量(通常以0或1值的形式存储)通常存在于大规模的工业过程中。但是,这些变量无法通过传统监测方法(例如LDA,PCA和PLS)有效地处理。最近,首次开发了一种混合的隐藏幼稚贝叶斯模型(MHNBM),以利用两个值和连续变量进行异常监测。尽管MHNBM有效,但仍需要改善一些缺点。对于MHNBM,与其他变量具有更大相关性的变量具有更大的权重,不能保证将更大的权重分配给更具歧视变量。另外,必须根据历史数据计算条件概率。当训练数据稀缺时,连续变量之间的条件概率往往均匀分布,这会影响MHNBM的性能。在这里,开发了一种新型特征加权混合的幼稚贝叶斯模型(FWMNBM)来克服上述缺点。对于FWMNBM,与类更相关的变量具有更大的权重,这使得更歧视变量对模型的贡献更大。同时,FWMNBM不必计算变量之间的条件概率,因此它受训练数据样本的数量的限制较小。与MHNBM相比,FWMNBM具有更好的性能,并且通过模拟示例的数值案例和中国Zhoushan热电厂(ZTPP)的实际情况来验证其有效性。

With the increasing intelligence and integration, a great number of two-valued variables (generally stored in the form of 0 or 1 value) often exist in large-scale industrial processes. However, these variables cannot be effectively handled by traditional monitoring methods such as LDA, PCA and PLS. Recently, a mixed hidden naive Bayesian model (MHNBM) is developed for the first time to utilize both two-valued and continuous variables for abnormality monitoring. Although MHNBM is effective, it still has some shortcomings that need to be improved. For MHNBM, the variables with greater correlation to other variables have greater weights, which cannot guarantee greater weights are assigned to the more discriminating variables. In addition, the conditional probability must be computed based on the historical data. When the training data is scarce, the conditional probability between continuous variables tends to be uniformly distributed, which affects the performance of MHNBM. Here a novel feature weighted mixed naive Bayes model (FWMNBM) is developed to overcome the above shortcomings. For FWMNBM, the variables that are more correlated to the class have greater weights, which makes the more discriminating variables contribute more to the model. At the same time, FWMNBM does not have to calculate the conditional probability between variables, thus it is less restricted by the number of training data samples. Compared with MHNBM, FWMNBM has better performance, and its effectiveness is validated through the numerical cases of a simulation example and a practical case of Zhoushan thermal power plant (ZTPP), China.

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