论文标题
NEO人口,速度偏见和影响地图集分析的风险
NEO Population, Velocity Bias, and Impact Risk from an ATLAS Analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
我们使用广泛的“太阳系”对像素的假掌座模拟来估计太阳系中近地对象(NEO)的总人群,以通过Atlas调查对真实NEO的DEBIAS检测。至“绝对大小” $ h = 25 $和27.6($ \ sim 34 $和10米的直径,分别为15%的反照率),我们发现总人口总数为$(3.72 \ pm 0.49)\ times 10^5 $和$(1.59 \ pm 0.45 \ pm 0.45)\ times 10^7 $ neos,分别为10^7 $ neos。大多数合理的错误来源趋于低估,因此真正的人群可能更大。我们发现,Neos Fainter的$ H $幅度的分布大于$ H \ SIM 22.5 $,这使得与从明亮的$ h $ mags的外推更常见的小行星可以预测。我们的模拟表明,偏向于检测遇到高相对速度的地球的小而危险的小行星,即高度倾斜和/或偏心轨道中的小行星。全球的NEO发现统计数据表明,这种偏见会影响全球的NEO检测能力,以至于目前可能不可行这种轨道中小行星的观察性人口普查。 NEO候选人的迅速和积极的随访,再加上全球NEO社区部分之间的更紧密的合作,可以提高这些危险物体的检测率。
We estimate the total population of near-Earth objects (NEOs) in the Solar System, using an extensive, `Solar System to pixels' fake-asteroid simulation to debias detections of real NEOs by the ATLAS survey. Down to absolute magnitudes $H=25$ and 27.6 (diameters of $\sim 34$ and 10 meters, respectively, for 15% albedo), we find total populations of $(3.72 \pm 0.49) \times 10^5$ and $(1.59 \pm 0.45) \times 10^7$ NEOs, respectively. Most plausible sources of error tend toward underestimation, so the true populations are likely larger. We find the distribution of $H$ magnitudes steepens for NEOs fainter than $H \sim 22.5$, making small asteroids more common than extrapolation from brighter $H$ mags would predict. Our simulation indicates a strong bias against detecting small but dangerous asteroids that encounter Earth with high relative velocities -- i.e., asteroids in highly inclined and/or eccentric orbits. Worldwide NEO discovery statistics indicate this bias affects global NEO detection capability, to the point that an observational census of small asteroids in such orbits is probably not currently feasible. Prompt and aggressive followup of NEO candidates, combined with closer collaborations between segments of the global NEO community, can increase detection rates for these dangerous objects.