论文标题
建模资产分配策略和新的投资组合绩效评分
Modeling asset allocation strategies and a new portfolio performance score
论文作者
论文摘要
我们讨论并扩展了一个强大的几何框架,以表示投资组合集,该组合将标识资产分配的空间,这些点位于凸层中。基于此观点,我们从几何和统计计算中调查了某些最先进的工具,以处理数字融资中的重要和困难问题。尽管我们的工具非常笼统,但在本文中,我们专注于两个特定问题。 首先是危机检测,这对一般的公众,尤其是政策制定者来说是主要的兴趣,因为危机对经济产生了重大影响。股票市场中的某些功能导致这种异常检测:鉴于资产的回报,我们通过副总统来描述投资组合的回报与波动性之间的关系,而无需对投资者策略做出任何假设。我们研究了一种依靠Copulae来构建适当指标的方法,该指标使我们能够自动化危机检测。在真实数据上,该指标检测到加密货币市场中的所有崩溃,而从1990年到2008年的DJ600-Europe索引,该指标可以正确地识别4个危机,并发出一个假阳性,我们为此提供了一个解释。 我们的第二个贡献是引入一个原始的计算框架来建模资产分配策略,这对数字融资及其应用具有独立的兴趣。我们的方法解决了评估投资组合管理的关键问题,并且与个人经理和金融机构有关。为了评估投资组合性能,我们根据上述框架和概念提供了新的投资组合分数。特别是,我们的分数取决于投资组合的统计属性,我们展示了如何有效地计算它们。
We discuss and extend a powerful, geometric framework to represent the set of portfolios, which identifies the space of asset allocations with the points lying in a convex polytope. Based on this viewpoint, we survey certain state-of-the-art tools from geometric and statistical computing in order to handle important and difficult problems in digital finance. Although our tools are quite general, in this paper we focus on two specific questions. The first concerns crisis detection, which is of prime interest for the public in general and for policy makers in particular because of the significant impact that crises have on the economy. Certain features in stock markets lead to this type of anomaly detection: Given the assets' returns, we describe the relationship between portfolios' return and volatility by means of a copula, without making any assumption on investor strategies. We examine a recent method relying on copulae to construct an appropriate indicator that allows us to automate crisis detection. On real data, the indicator detects all past crashes in the cryptocurrency market, whereas from the DJ600-Europe index, from 1990 to 2008, the indicator identifies correctly 4 crises and issues one false positive for which we offer an explanation. Our second contribution is to introduce an original computational framework to model asset allocation strategies, which is of independent interest for digital finance and its applications. Our approach addresses the crucial question of evaluating portfolio management, and is relevant to individual managers as well as financial institutions. To evaluate portfolio performance, we provide a new portfolio score, based on the aforementioned framework and concepts. In particular, our score relies on the statistical properties of portfolios, and we show how they can be computed efficiently.