论文标题
分析用于预测太阳耀斑的活性区域的磁极性
Analysis of magnetic polarities in active regions for the prediction of solar flares
论文作者
论文摘要
太阳活动区域及其中发生的过程已经进行了广泛的研究和分析，并且已经提出了许多类型的模型和特征，以实现在太阳大气中发生的不同喷发事件的发生。这些区域中最具特征的是磁极相反的区域，在大多数情况下，它们会产生爆炸性事件，例如所谓的太阳耀斑。耀斑是在太阳大气中发生的巨大爆炸，对地球和人类开发的技术产生不利影响，它们也在确定所谓的太空天气中的因素。因此，已经尝试预测这些事件的发生。在本研究中，我们根据Korsos等人提出的文章开发了高于M5的太阳耀斑的预测模型。 （2014，2015）使用耀斑与双极活动区域之间的关系。该分析考虑了相反极性，平均磁场的面积，以及该区域中每个黑子的磁性磁中心的样品，用于三个活性区域的样本，以查找由于日光点的演变而导致的时间变化，从而确认了文献中报道的先前结果。我们进行了统计分析，以确定是否发生爆发后，在随后的几个小时内可能会出现另一个。
Solar active regions and the processes that occur in them have been extensively studied and analyzed and many types of models and characterizations have been proposed for the occurrence of different eruptive events that take place in the solar atmosphere. The most characteristic of these regions are those that have opposite magnetic polarity, which, in their majority, generate explosive events such as the so-called solar flares. The flares are intense explosions occurring in the solar atmosphere with adverse effects on the Earth and the technology developed by humans, and they are also determining factors in the so-called space weather. For this reason, attempts have been made to predict the occurrence of these events. In the present study, we developed a predictive model of solar flares higher than M5 based on the articles proposed by Korsos, et al. (2014, 2015) using the relationship between the flares and the bipolar active regions. The analysis took into account the areas of the umbrae of opposite polarity, their average magnetic field, and the magnetic barycenter from each sunspot in the region for a sample of three active regions to find the temporal variation due to the evolution of the sunspots, thus confirming previous results reported in the literature. We made a statistical analysis to determine whether after a flare occurs, another can arise in the subsequent hours.
