论文标题
建模杭州的城市增长和社会空间动力学：1964- 2010年
Modeling Urban Growth and Socio-Spatial Dynamics of Hangzhou: 1964-2010
论文作者
论文摘要
城市人口密度为理解城市增长和社会空间动态提供了良好的观点。基于1964年，1982年，1990年，2000年和2010年的全国人口普查五次数据，本文致力于分析中国杭州市的城市增长和人口的空间重组。研究方法基于数学建模和现场调查。建模结果表明，负指数函数和功率指数函数可以很好地适用于杭州的城市密度观察数据。负指数模型反映了预期状态，而幂指数模型反映了城市密度分布的真实状态。这些模型的参数与人口分布的空间信息熵线性相关。 1990年代和2000年代负指数函数中的密度梯度与郊区化的发展密切相关。在调查材料和模型参数的变化趋势方面，我们可以揭示杭州城市增长的时空特征。主要结论可以如下得出。改革和开放的政策以及市场经济的建立改善了杭州的发展模式。只要城市拥有良好的社会和经济环境，它将通过自组织自动趋于最佳状态。
Urban population density provides a good perspective for understanding urban growth and socio-spatial dynamics. Based on sub-district data of the five times of national population censuses in 1964, 1982, 1990, 2000, and 2010, this paper is devoted to making analyses of urban growth and the spatial restructuring of population in the city of Hangzhou, China. Research methods are based on mathematical modeling and field investigation. The modeling result shows that the negative exponential function and the power-exponential function can be well fitted to Hangzhou's observational data of urban density. The negative exponential model reflect the expected state, while the power-exponential model reflects the real state of urban density distribution. The parameters of these models are linearly correlated to the spatial information entropy of population distribution. The density gradient in the negative exponential function flattened in the 1990s and 2000s is closely related to the development of suburbanization. In terms of investigation materials and the changing trend of model parameters, we can reveal the spatio-temporal features of Hangzhou's urban growth. The main conclusions can be reached as follows. The policy of reformation and opening-up and the establishment of a market economy improved the development mode of Hangzhou. As long as a city has a good social and economic environment, it will automatically tend to the optimal state through self-organization.
