论文标题
多样性依赖性不确定性管理，用于不确定的异构储层中的烃刺激，并提高效率
Diversity Dependent Uncertainty Management for Hydrocarbon Stimulation in Uncertain Heterogeneous Reservoir with Improved Efficiency
论文作者
论文摘要
通过液压压裂的石油和天然气井刺激的历史的特征是追求针对储层特性的最佳设计。但是，与许多工程系统一样，在这些确定性方法中没有说明可变性和不确定性的影响（在这种情况下为储层属性）。我们提出了设计多样性原理的扩展，其中焦点变成了多种设计的最佳组合组合，而不是重复应用单个设计。当设计系统可取性被定义为平稳变化的效率以及风险与与设计环境不确定的变异性相关的结果差异相关的系统时，这种方法可以大大提高效率并降低风险。对于油/天然气井的情况，我们证明了设计的多样化组合可以提高刺激效率近四倍，并削减与可变性和结果不确定性相关的风险，超过80％。因此，水力压裂优化从根本上取决于不确定性，而追求设计多样性的方法改变可以对效率和风险产生深远的影响，进而对石油和天然气开发产生的成本和环境影响。
The history of oil and gas well stimulation through hydraulic fracturing is characterized by a pursuit of optimal designs tailored to reservoir properties. However, as with many engineering systems, the impact of variability and uncertainty (in this case of reservoir properties) is not accounted in these deterministic approaches. We propose an expansion of the principle of design diversity wherein the focus becomes developing optimal portfolio combinations of multiple designs rather than repeated application of a single design. This approach can substantially increase efficiency and decrease risk when designing systems where outcome desirability is definable as a smoothly-varying efficiency and where risk is related to the variance of outcomes tied to uncertain variability of the design environment. For the case of oil/gas wells, we demonstrate diverse portfolios of designs can improve stimulation efficiency by nearly a factor of four and cut risk associated with variability and uncertainty of outcomes by over 80%. Hydraulic fracturing optimization is therefore fundamentally dependent upon uncertainty, and a change of approach toward the pursuit of design diversity can have a profound impact on efficiency and risk, and in turn cost and environmental impacts, in oil and gas development.
