论文标题
因果关系的不确定性下的剩余使用寿命估计
Remaining Useful Life Estimation Under Uncertainty with Causal GraphNets
论文作者
论文摘要
在这项工作中,提出了一种用于构建和培训时间序列模型的新方法,该方法处理了与非平衡观测值的大型学习问题,同时可能具有跨越多个尺度的感兴趣的特征。所提出的方法适用于为非平稳随机时间序列构建预测模型。该方法的功效在模拟随机退化数据集以及现实世界加速的寿命测试数据集中证明了该方法的功效。所提出的方法基于图形网,隐含地学习了一个模型,该模型描述了系统矢量级别而不是原始观察的级别的演变。将所提出的方法与具有时间卷积特征提取器头(RNN-TCNN)的经常性网络进行了比较,该网络构成了所考虑的问题上下文的已知可行替代方案。最后,通过利用用于学习概率分布的修复梯度计算的最新进展,采用了一种简单而有效的技术,用于表示预测不确定性,作为伽马分布,而不是剩余的有用寿命预测。
In this work, a novel approach for the construction and training of time series models is presented that deals with the problem of learning on large time series with non-equispaced observations, which at the same time may possess features of interest that span multiple scales. The proposed method is appropriate for constructing predictive models for non-stationary stochastic time series.The efficacy of the method is demonstrated on a simulated stochastic degradation dataset and on a real-world accelerated life testing dataset for ball-bearings. The proposed method, which is based on GraphNets, implicitly learns a model that describes the evolution of the system at the level of a state-vector rather than of a raw observation. The proposed approach is compared to a recurrent network with a temporal convolutional feature extractor head (RNN-tCNN) which forms a known viable alternative for the problem context considered. Finally, by taking advantage of recent advances in the computation of reparametrization gradients for learning probability distributions, a simple yet effective technique for representing prediction uncertainty as a Gamma distribution over remaining useful life predictions is employed.