论文标题
通过高斯流程学习气候引起的人类迁移的驱动因素
Learning drivers of climate-induced human migrations with Gaussian processes
论文作者
论文摘要
在当前气候变化的背景下，极端的热浪，干旱和洪水不仅影响生物圈和大气，而且会影响人类圈。人口被强行流离失所，现在被称为气候引起的移民。在这项工作中，我们调查了哪些气候和结构因素在2017 - 2019年期间迫使人类的主要流离失所。我们建立了，策划和协调一个气象和遥感指标的数据库，以及全球27个发展中国家的结构因素。我们展示了如何使用高斯流程来了解哪些变量可以解释在强迫位移的背景下洪水和风暴的影响，并开发繁殖迁移流的模型。我们在区域，全球和特定灾难的量表上的结果表明，结构因素在确定位移幅度中的重要性。该研究可能具有社会，政治和经济的影响。
In the current context of climate change, extreme heatwaves, droughts, and floods are not only impacting the biosphere and atmosphere but the anthroposphere too. Human populations are forcibly displaced, which are now referred to as climate-induced migrants. In this work, we investigate which climate and structural factors forced major human displacements in the presence of floods and storms during the years 2017-2019. We built, curated, and harmonized a database of meteorological and remote sensing indicators along with structural factors of 27 developing countries worldwide. We show how we can use Gaussian Processes to learn what variables can explain the impact of floods and storms in the context of forced displacements and to develop models that reproduce migration flows. Our results at regional, global, and disaster-specific scales show the importance of structural factors in the determination of the magnitude of displacements. The study may have both societal, political, and economical implications.
