论文标题

COVID-19-Pandemics的时空小区域监视

Spatio-temporal small area surveillance of the Covid-19 pandemics

论文作者

Martinez-Beneito, Miguel A., Mateu, Jorge, Botella-Rocamora, Paloma

论文摘要

Covid-19的出现需要新的有效工具来进行流行病学监测。从这个意义上讲,时空疾病映射模型允许处理高度分解的空间和时间单位,这些模型可以处理高度分解的空间和时间单位。时空模型提供了有关大流行病当前状态的地理详细概念,并使公共卫生干预措施更加有效。此外,在新的Covid-19-19流行病环境中使用时空疾病映射模型,促进了估计新要求的新要求​​的流行病学指标,例如瞬时繁殖数(R_T),即使在小面积上也是如此。反过来,这允许将传统疾病映射模型适应这些新情况,并在这种特定情况下使其结果更有用。 在本文中,我们提出了一个新的时空疾病映射模型,特别适合于19号监视。作为另一个结果,我们得出了小区域的瞬时繁殖数估计值,从而可以通过高空间分类来监视此参数。我们通过对两个西班牙两个地区的疾病大流行学的单独研究来说明我们的提议的使用。结果,我们说明了旅游流量如何塑造疾病的空间分布。在这些真实研究中,我们还提出了新的监视工具,该工具可以由区域公共卫生服务使用,以更有效地利用其资源。

The emergence of Covid-19 requires new effective tools for epidemiological surveillance. Spatio-temporal disease mapping models, which allow dealing with highly disaggregated spatial and temporal units of analysis, are a priority in this sense. Spatio-temporal models provide a geographically detailed and temporally updated overview of the current state of the pandemics, making public health interventions to be more effective. Moreover, the use of spatio-temporal disease mapping models in the new Covid-19 epidemic context, facilitates estimating newly demanded epidemiological indicators, such as the instantaneous reproduction number (R_t), even for small areas. This, in turn, allows to adapt traditional disease mapping models to these new circumstancies and make their results more useful in this particular context. In this paper we propose a new spatio-temporal disease mapping model, particularly suited to Covid-19 surveillance. As an additional result, we derive instantaneous reproduction number estimates for small areas, enabling monitoring this parameter with a high spatial disaggregation. We illustrate the use of our proposal with the separate study of the disease pandemics in two Spanish regions. As a result, we illustrate how touristic flows could haved shaped the spatial distribution of the disease. In these real studies, we also propose new surveillance tools that can be used by regional public health services to make a more efficient use of their resources.

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