论文标题
提高销售预测准确性:一种张量分解方法,需求意识
Improving Sales Forecasting Accuracy: A Tensor Factorization Approach with Demand Awareness
论文作者
论文摘要
由于来自消费者,产品和商店的可访问的大数据收集,因此高级销售预测功能引起了许多公司的极大关注,尤其是在零售业务中,由于其在决策中的重要性。即使是一小部分,预测准确性的提高也可能会对公司的生产和财务计划,营销策略,库存控制,供应链管理,最终及最终股价产生重大影响。具体来说,我们的研究目标是在不久的将来预测每家商店中每种产品的销量。我们提出了一种针对个性化上下文感知的推荐系统的张量分解方法,我们提出了一种新颖的方法,称为“先进的临时潜在因子方法销售预测(ATLAS)”,该方法通过在多个商店和产品中构建单个张量的量化模型来实现准确和个性化的销售预测。我们的贡献是:张量框架(以跨商店和产品的信息利用信息),一种新的正则化功能(结合需求动力学),以及使用最先进的统计(季节性自动调节综合运动平均型号)和机器 - 机器人学习型(Recrent nearrent Neverning网络)模型。在Information Resource,Inc。收集的八个产品类别数据集中,ATLA的优点得到了证明,其中总共分析了1,500多家杂货店超过15,560种产品的每周销售交易。
Due to accessible big data collections from consumers, products, and stores, advanced sales forecasting capabilities have drawn great attention from many companies especially in the retail business because of its importance in decision making. Improvement of the forecasting accuracy, even by a small percentage, may have a substantial impact on companies' production and financial planning, marketing strategies, inventory controls, supply chain management, and eventually stock prices. Specifically, our research goal is to forecast the sales of each product in each store in the near future. Motivated by tensor factorization methodologies for personalized context-aware recommender systems, we propose a novel approach called the Advanced Temporal Latent-factor Approach to Sales forecasting (ATLAS), which achieves accurate and individualized prediction for sales by building a single tensor-factorization model across multiple stores and products. Our contribution is a combination of: tensor framework (to leverage information across stores and products), a new regularization function (to incorporate demand dynamics), and extrapolation of tensor into future time periods using state-of-the-art statistical (seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving-average models) and machine-learning (recurrent neural networks) models. The advantages of ATLAS are demonstrated on eight product category datasets collected by the Information Resource, Inc., where a total of 165 million weekly sales transactions from more than 1,500 grocery stores over 15,560 products are analyzed.