论文标题
深度:深度反复的反处理加权,以调整现代纵向观察数据中时变混杂
DeepRite: Deep Recurrent Inverse TreatmEnt Weighting for Adjusting Time-varying Confounding in Modern Longitudinal Observational Data
论文作者
论文摘要
反事实预测是关于从数据中预测未观察到的情况的结果。例如,鉴于患者正在使用药物A,如果她改用药物B会结果B。大多数现有作品都集中在基于静态数据的反事实结果上进行建模。但是,许多应用程序都具有随着时间的变化效果,例如随着时间的推移多种处理。如何从纵向观察数据中对这种时间变化的效果进行建模?如何在数据中建模复杂的高维依赖性?为了应对这些挑战,我们通过将经常性的神经网络纳入两相调整,以使现代纵向数据中的时变混杂存在,提出深层反复处理加权(DEEPRITE)。在第一阶段的队列中,我们适合一个网络来发出依赖时间的治疗概率,使用它们来产生伪平衡的队列。在II阶段的结果进程中,我们将调整后的数据输入到后续的预测网络中,以进行反事实预测。我们在重症监护病房中从败血症患者那里收集的合成数据和实际数据进行了评估。证明了深陆可从合成数据中恢复地面真理,并从真实数据中估算了无偏见的治疗效果,可以更好地与败血症管理的标准指南保持一致,这要归功于其创建平衡的同类群体。
Counterfactual prediction is about predicting outcome of the unobserved situation from the data. For example, given patient is on drug A, what would be the outcome if she switch to drug B. Most of existing works focus on modeling counterfactual outcome based on static data. However, many applications have time-varying confounding effects such as multiple treatments over time. How to model such time-varying effects from longitudinal observational data? How to model complex high-dimensional dependency in the data? To address these challenges, we propose Deep Recurrent Inverse TreatmEnt weighting (DeepRite) by incorporating recurrent neural networks into two-phase adjustments for the existence of time-varying confounding in modern longitudinal data. In phase I cohort reweighting we fit one network for emitting time dependent inverse probabilities of treatment, use them to generate a pseudo balanced cohort. In phase II outcome progression, we input the adjusted data to the subsequent predictive network for making counterfactual predictions. We evaluate DeepRite on both synthetic data and a real data collected from sepsis patients in the intensive care units. DeepRite is shown to recover the ground truth from synthetic data, and estimate unbiased treatment effects from real data that can be better aligned with the standard guidelines for management of sepsis thanks to its applicability to create balanced cohorts.