论文标题
评估下一代宽带对本地业务创建的影响
Evaluating the impact of next generation broadband on local business creation
论文作者
论文摘要
基本的宽带连通性通常被认为具有宏观经济效应。但是,在过去的十年中,有一个新兴的思想流派暗示升级到更高速度宽带的影响被夸大了,可能导致纳税人资助的补贴的效率低下。在此分析中,我们使用高分辨率面板数据对下一代访问对新业务创建的影响进行建模。在控制了一系列因素之后,结果提供了高速宽带对研究期间新业务创建的小但显着的负面影响的证据,我们认为这可能是由于两个因素造成的。首先,从基本宽带转移到高速宽带,几乎没有好处来构成新业务。其次,在线服务提供商(例如亚马逊等)的强大价格竞争和市场整合可能会阻止新的业务初创企业。该分析提供了另一个证据,表明宽带的经济影响比辩论传统上提出的要细微差别。我们的猜想是,未来的政策决策需要对宽带的潜在经济影响更加现实,包括那些可能对当地企业和当地税基的股票负面影响的影响。
Basic broadband connectivity is regarded as generally having a positive macroeconomic effect. However, over the past decade there has been an emerging school of thought suggesting the impacts of upgrading to higher speed broadband have been overstated, potentially leading to the inefficient allocation of taxpayer-funded subsidies. In this analysis we model the impacts of Next Generation Access on new business creation using high-resolution panel data. After controlling for a range of factors, the results provide evidence of a small but significant negative impact of high-speed broadband on new business creation over the study period which we suggest could be due to two factors. Firstly, moving from basic to high-speed broadband provides few benefits to enable new businesses being formed. Secondly, strong price competition and market consolidation from online service providers (e.g. Amazon etc.) may be deterring new business start-ups. This analysis provides another piece of evidence to suggest that the economic impact of broadband is more nuanced than the debate has traditionally suggested. Our conjecture is that future policy decisions need to be more realistic about the potential economic impacts of broadband, including those effects that could be negative on the stock of local businesses and therefore the local tax base.