论文标题

零充气数据和极值的地统计模型

Geostatistical models for zero-inflated data and extreme values

论文作者

Pereira, Soraia, Menezes, Raquel, Angélico, Maria Manuel, Marques, Tiago

论文摘要

了解动物在其所有生活阶段的空间分布以及如何受环境协变量影响分布,这是有效管理动物种群的基本要求。文献中已经提出了几种地理模型,但是数据结构通常会呈现出过量的零和极值,这在建模过程中忽略时可能会导致不可靠的估计。为了解决这些问题,我们提出了一个重点引用的零充气模型,以对存在的可能性以及积极的观察结果以及对极端的积极观察结果以及一个重点引用的广义帕累托模型。最后,我们结合了这两个模型的结果,以获得对感兴趣变量的空间预测。我们遵循贝叶斯方法,并使用软件中的r-Inla包进行推理。通过分析沙丁鱼卵密度的空间分布(鸡蛋/$ m^3 $),我们提出了我们提出的方法。结果表明,零膨胀和极值的组合模型提高了空间预测的准确性。因此,我们的结论是,考虑建模过程中的数据结构是重要的。同样,所考虑的层次模型可以广泛适用于许多生态问题,甚至在其他情况下。

Understanding the spatial distribution of animals, during all their life phases, as well as how the distributions are influenced by environmental covariates, is a fundamental requirement for the effective management of animal populations. Several geostatistical models have been proposed in the literature, however often the data structure presents an excess of zeros and extreme values, which can lead to unreliable estimates when these are ignored in the modelling process. To deal with these issues, we propose a point-referenced zero-inflated model to model the probability of presence together with the positive observations and a point-referenced generalised Pareto model for the extremes. Finally, we combine the results of these two models to get the spatial predictions of the variable of interest. We follow a Bayesian approach and the inference is made using the package R-INLA in the software R. Our proposed methodology was illustrated through the analysis of the spatial distribution of sardine eggs density (eggs/$m^3$). The results showed that the combined model for zero-inflated and extreme values improved the spatial prediction accuracy. Accordingly, our conclusion is that it is relevant to consider the data structure in the modelling process. Also, the hierarchical model considered can be widely applicable in many ecological problems and even in other contexts.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源