论文标题
金融市场的进化动态,战略和风险承受能力异质
Evolutionary dynamics in financial markets with heterogeneities in strategies and risk tolerance
论文作者
论文摘要
在自然界和人类社会中,均质和异质特征对集体行为进化的影响彼此截然不同。了解这种差异发生的基本机制非常重要。通过将配对模式策略和参考点策略纳入基于代理的模型,我们研究了异质投资策略和异质风险容忍度对价格波动的耦合影响。在市场上,投资者以同质的投资策略或同质风险承受能力淹没,很容易发生价格波动。在市场上,投资者以异质投资策略或异质风险承受能力淹没,价格波动被抑制了。对于异质人群,投资者具有配对策略和参考点策略的共存使价格围绕典型的平衡点的波动缓慢,并且避免了较大的价格波动和无贸易状态,在这种情况下,这些策略远离了系统的均衡,而这些策略将参考点策略远离参考点策略,同时引起了参考点策略的等价。理论分析表明,本模型中的进化动力学受不同策略之间的竞争。导致价格大波动的策略损失了更多,而将系统恢复到均衡的策略则更多。过高的交易确实会损害一个人追求更多财富。
In nature and human societies, the effects of homogeneous and heterogeneous characteristics on the evolution of collective behaviors are quite different from each other. It is of great importance to understand the underlying mechanisms of the occurrence of such differences. By incorporating pair pattern strategies and reference point strategies into an agent-based model, we have investigated the coupled effects of heterogeneous investment strategies and heterogeneous risk tolerance on price fluctuations. In the market flooded with the investors with homogeneous investment strategies or homogeneous risk tolerance, large price fluctuations are easy to occur. In the market flooded with the investors with heterogeneous investment strategies or heterogeneous risk tolerance, the price fluctuations are suppressed. For a heterogeneous population, the coexistence of investors with pair pattern strategies and reference point strategies causes the price to have a slow fluctuation around a typical equilibrium point and both a large price fluctuation and a no-trading state are avoided, in which the pair pattern strategies push the system far away from the equilibrium while the reference point strategies pull the system back to the equilibrium. A theoretical analysis indicates that the evolutionary dynamics in the present model is governed by the competition between different strategies. The strategy that causes large price fluctuations loses more while the strategy that pulls the system back to the equilibrium gains more. Overfrequent trading does harm to one's pursuit for more wealth.