论文标题
共组织的波浪感染曲线19
Self-organized wavy infection curve of COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
我表明，利用SIQR模型为Covid-19，我表明日本的波浪感染曲线是政府对孤立措施的政策波动的结果，并由公民遵守。假设感染系数是每日确认的新病例数的两个值函数，我表明，当受感染个体的去除率在这两个值之间时，波浪感染曲线就会自我组织。根据感染曲线，我将Covid-19的爆发分为五种类型，并表明这些差异可能与传播系数的相对大小和受感染个体的检疫率有关。
Exploiting the SIQR model for COVID-19, I show that the wavy infection curve in Japan is the result of fluctuation of policy on isolation measure imposed by the government and obeyed by citizens. Assuming the infection coefficient be a two-valued function of the number of daily confirmed new cases, I show that when the removal rate of infected individuals is between these two values, the wavy infection curve is self-organized. On the basis of the infection curve, I classify the outbreak of COVID-19 into five types and show that these differences can be related to the relative magnitude of the transmission coefficient and the quarantine rate of infected individuals.
