论文标题
COVID-19在K-Quarantine模型下流行：网络方法
Covid-19 epidemic under the K-quarantine model: Network approach
论文作者
论文摘要
COVID-19-19的大流行在全球范围内正在进行，其造成的损害是前所未有的。为了预防，韩国采用了当地的隔离战略，而不是全球锁定。这种方法不仅可以最大程度地减少经济损害，还可以有效防止疾病的传播。在这项工作中，在局部隔离措施下，Covid-19的扩散是使用复杂网络上的易感暴露感染反射模型建模的。在这种网络方法中，连接到孤立的人的链接被断开连接，然后在发布时恢复了连接。此链接动力学导致时间依赖性的繁殖数。数值模拟是在网络上进行的，其反应速率是从经验数据中估算的。然后再现了确认病例的累积数量的时间模式。结果表明，由于被感染的患者隔离，发现大量无症状感染患者。此外，考虑了当地隔离措施和社会疏远的崩溃的可能后果。
The Covid-19 pandemic is ongoing worldwide, and the damage it has caused is unprecedented. For prevention, South Korea has adopted a local quarantine strategy rather than a global lockdown. This approach not only minimizes economic damage, but it also efficiently prevents the spread of the disease. In this work, the spread of COVID-19 under local quarantine measures is modeled using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model on complex networks. In this network approach, the links connected to isolated people are disconnected and then reinstated when they are released. This link dynamics leads to time-dependent reproduction number. Numerical simulations are performed on networks with reaction rates estimated from empirical data. The temporal pattern of the cumulative number of confirmed cases is then reproduced. The results show that a large number of asymptomatic infected patients are detected as they are quarantined together with infected patients. Additionally, possible consequences of the breakdowns of local quarantine measures and social distancing are considered.
