论文标题
保护主义与经济增长：全球化第一时代的因果证据
Protectionism and economic growth: Causal evidence from the first era of globalization
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究贸易保护主义政策如何影响经济增长。我们的经验策略利用了一个非凡的税收丑闻，这导致了瑞典政府的意外变化。 1887年，贸易保护主义的多数席卷了议会的自由贸易多数。贸易保护主义政府提高了关税。我们采用合成控制方法来选择可以比较瑞典经济增长的控制国家。我们没有找到证据表明贸易保护主义政策影响了经济增长并检查渠道原因。新的关税法增加了政府收入。但是，结果并不建议保护主义政府通过增加政府支出来刺激经济。
We investigate how protectionist policies influence economic growth. Our empirical strategy exploits an extraordinary tax scandal that gave rise to an unexpected change of government in Sweden. A free-trade majority in parliament was overturned by a protectionist majority in 1887. The protectionist government increased tariffs. We employ the synthetic control method to select control countries against which economic growth in Sweden can be compared. We do not find evidence suggesting that protectionist policies influenced economic growth and examine channels why. The new tariff laws increased government revenue. However, the results do not suggest that the protectionist government stimulated the economy by increasing government expenditure.
