论文标题
包含大流行：非药物干预和“第二波”
Containing a pandemic: Nonpharmaceutical interventions and the "second wave"
论文作者
论文摘要
为了应对冠状病毒疾病的爆发，共同进行了各种非药物干预措施，例如面罩和社会疏远。需要仔细评估此类遏制策略的影响，以避免超过社会和经济成本以及危险的大流行“第二波”。在这项工作中，我们结合了最近开发的动态密度功能理论模型和一个扩展的SIRD模型，并具有滞后，以研究使用现实参数的各种措施和策略的效果。根据干预阈值，发现各种关闭和死亡的各个阶段。时空模拟为第二波动力学提供了进一步的见解。我们的结果对于公共卫生政策至关重要。
In response to the worldwide outbreak of the coronavirus disease COVID-19, a variety of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as face masks and social distancing have been implemented. A careful assessment of the effects of such containment strategies is required to avoid exceeding social and economical costs as well as a dangerous "second wave" of the pandemic. In this work, we combine a recently developed dynamical density functional theory model and an extended SIRD model with hysteresis to study effects of various measures and strategies using realistic parameters. Depending on intervention thresholds, a variety of phases with different numbers of shutdowns and deaths are found. Spatiotemporal simulations provide further insights into the dynamics of a second wave. Our results are of crucial importance for public health policy.
