论文标题

从Twitter到流量预测器:使用社交媒体数据的第二天早上流量预测

From Twitter to Traffic Predictor: Next-Day Morning Traffic Prediction Using Social Media Data

论文作者

Yao, Weiran, Qian, Sean

论文摘要

在清晨预测交通动态时,传统交通预测方法的有效性通常非常有限。原因是,在清晨通勤期间,交通可能会大大分解,并且这种分解的时间和持续时间每天都在差异很大。清晨的交通预测对于通知晨交流的交通管理至关重要,但是它们通常具有挑战性地预测,尤其是在午夜之前。在本文中,我们建议将Twitter消息作为一种探索方法,以了解前一天晚上/午夜的人们的工作和休息模式的影响到第二天的早晨交通。该模型作为实验在匹兹堡的高速公路网络上进行了测试。由此产生的关系非常简单和强大。我们发现,总的来说,较早的人会如推文所表明的那样,第二天早上将是更拥挤的道路。前一天晚上发生的大事件发生,以高于或较低的推文表示,通常意味着第二天早晨的旅行需求比正常日期低。此外,人们在早晨和清晨的统计上与早晨高峰时段的交通拥堵有关。我们利用这样的关系来建立一个预测框架,该框架预测早晨的通勤使用人们在早上午夜之前或午夜之前提取的人们的推文轮廓。匹兹堡的研究支持我们的框架可以准确预测早晨的拥堵,特别是对于有大量日常拥塞变化的道路瓶颈上游的某些路段。我们的方法大大优于那些没有Twitter消息功能的现有方法,它可以从提供管理洞察力的推文配置文件中学习有意义的需求表示。

The effectiveness of traditional traffic prediction methods is often extremely limited when forecasting traffic dynamics in early morning. The reason is that traffic can break down drastically during the early morning commute, and the time and duration of this break-down vary substantially from day to day. Early morning traffic forecast is crucial to inform morning-commute traffic management, but they are generally challenging to predict in advance, particularly by midnight. In this paper, we propose to mine Twitter messages as a probing method to understand the impacts of people's work and rest patterns in the evening/midnight of the previous day to the next-day morning traffic. The model is tested on freeway networks in Pittsburgh as experiments. The resulting relationship is surprisingly simple and powerful. We find that, in general, the earlier people rest as indicated from Tweets, the more congested roads will be in the next morning. The occurrence of big events in the evening before, represented by higher or lower tweet sentiment than normal, often implies lower travel demand in the next morning than normal days. Besides, people's tweeting activities in the night before and early morning are statistically associated with congestion in morning peak hours. We make use of such relationships to build a predictive framework which forecasts morning commute congestion using people's tweeting profiles extracted by 5 am or as late as the midnight prior to the morning. The Pittsburgh study supports that our framework can precisely predict morning congestion, particularly for some road segments upstream of roadway bottlenecks with large day-to-day congestion variation. Our approach considerably outperforms those existing methods without Twitter message features, and it can learn meaningful representation of demand from tweeting profiles that offer managerial insights.

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