论文标题

从蚂蚁到渔船:一个简单的模型,用于放牧和开发有限资源

From Ants to Fishing Vessels: A Simple Model for Herding and Exploitation of Finite Resources

论文作者

Moran, José, Fosset, Antoine, Kirman, Alan, Benzaquen, Michael

论文摘要

我们分析了这些船只在选择钓鱼的地区的渔船动态,这些船只在过去的经验中受到了自己的经验以及他们目前对舰队中其他船只位置的观察的影响。来自安科纳(Ancona)和佩斯卡拉(Pescara)附近的船只的经验数据显示,风格化的统计特性让人联想到柯尔曼(Kirman)和福尔默(Föllmer)的蚂蚁招募模型,尽管有两个由两个端口代表的蚂蚁菌落。从渔夫的角度来看,这两个捕鱼区并非同样吸引人,他倾向于更喜欢一个更接近他所在地的人。这一证据使我们将原始的蚂蚁模型扩展到了两个不对称区域和有限资源的情况。我们表明,在平均田间制度中,我们的模型具有与经验数据相同的特性。我们获得了一个分离高和低牛群机制的相图,但也将人口灭绝。我们的分析对捕鱼区的生态具有有趣的政策影响。这也表明,这里的放牧行为,就像在金融市场上一样,将导致降落的鱼类数量的显着波动,因为在给定时间点上的船只集中在一个区域上会减少整体捕获,因此损失不会因其他地区的鱼类再现而弥补。换句话说,个体理性的行为不会导致共同的最佳结果。

We analyse the dynamics of fishing vessels with different home ports in an area where these vessels, in choosing where to fish, are influenced by their own experience in the past and by their current observation of the locations of other vessels in the fleet. Empirical data from the boats near Ancona and Pescara shows stylized statistical properties that are reminiscent of Kirman and Föllmer's ant recruitment model, although with two ant colonies represented by the two ports. From the point of view of a fisherman, the two fishing areas are not equally attractive, and he tends to prefer the one closer to where he is based. This piece of evidence led us to extend the original ants model to a situation with two asymmetric zones and finite resources. We show that, in the mean-field regime, our model exhibits the same properties as the empirical data. We obtain a phase diagram that separates high and low herding regimes, but also fish population extinction. Our analysis has interesting policy implications for the ecology of fishing areas. It also suggests that herding behaviour here, just as in financial markets, will lead to significant fluctuations in the amount of fish landed, as the boat concentration on one area at a given point in time will diminish the overall catch, such loss not being compensated by the reproduction of fish in the other area. In other terms, individually rational behaviour will not lead to collectively optimal results.

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