论文标题

经济的两个增长率

The Two Growth Rates of the Economy

论文作者

Adamou, Alexander, Berman, Yonatan, Peters, Ole

论文摘要

经济增长衡量是人均国内生产总值(GDP)的相对变化率。但是,当收入遵循随机乘法增长时,从长远来看,整体平均(GDP人均)的增长率高于每个人所达到的时间平均增长率。这个数学事实是千古经济学的起点。使用非典型的一体平均增长率作为主要增长措施会产生不完整的情况。通过报告合奏平均水平和时间平均增长率,可以更好地了解决策。我们严格分析这些增长率,并描述它们在过去五十年中在美国和法国的演变。两种增长率之间的差异导致自然衡量收入不平等,等于平均对数偏差。尽管估计是个人收入增长率的平均值,但时间平均增长率与收入流动性无关。

Economic growth is measured as the rate of relative change in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Yet, when incomes follow random multiplicative growth, the ensemble-average (GDP per capita) growth rate is higher than the time-average growth rate achieved by each individual in the long run. This mathematical fact is the starting point of ergodicity economics. Using the atypically high ensemble-average growth rate as the principal growth measure creates an incomplete picture. Policymaking would be better informed by reporting both ensemble-average and time-average growth rates. We analyse rigorously these growth rates and describe their evolution in the United States and France over the last fifty years. The difference between the two growth rates gives rise to a natural measure of income inequality, equal to the mean logarithmic deviation. Despite being estimated as the average of individual income growth rates, the time-average growth rate is independent of income mobility.

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