论文标题

在有限的合理性下,层次游戏中的解决方案概念以及自动驾驶的应用

Solution Concepts in Hierarchical Games under Bounded Rationality with Applications to Autonomous Driving

论文作者

Sarkar, Atrisha, Czarnecki, Krzysztof

论文摘要

随着自动驾驶汽车(AV)将进一步集成到常规的人类交通中,因此将AV运动计划视为一个多代理问题,达成了越来越多的共识。但是,传统的游戏理论假设完全合理性对于人类驾驶来说太强了,并且有必要通过行为游戏理论镜头将人类驾驶视为\ emph {有限的理性}活动。为此,我们适应了有界有界行为的四个元模型:基于量子级别的三个元模型,另一个基于NASH平衡,具有数量误差。我们正式化了可以在层次游戏的背景下应用的不同解决方案概念,即在多代理运动计划中使用的框架,目的是创建游戏理论驾驶行为的理论模型。此外,基于在繁忙的城市交叉路口的贡献人类驾驶的数据集,总共约4K代理和44K决策点,我们根据拟合自然主义数据的模型及其预测能力来评估行为模型。我们的结果表明,在在演习级别评估的行为模型中,将驾驶行为建模为定型级别K模型的适应,该模型以纯规则遵循的级别为0级别的行为为自然主义驾驶行为提供了最佳拟合。相比之下,在轨迹的层面上,动作的边界采样和Maxmax非战略模型是最准确的。我们还发现情境因素对行为模型的性能的重大影响。

With autonomous vehicles (AV) set to integrate further into regular human traffic, there is an increasing consensus on treating AV motion planning as a multi-agent problem. However, the traditional game-theoretic assumption of complete rationality is too strong for human driving, and there is a need for understanding human driving as a \emph{bounded rational} activity through a behavioural game-theoretic lens. To that end, we adapt four metamodels of bounded rational behaviour: three based on Quantal level-k and one based on Nash equilibrium with quantal errors. We formalize the different solution concepts that can be applied in the context of hierarchical games, a framework used in multi-agent motion planning, for the purpose of creating game theoretic models of driving behaviour. Furthermore, based on a contributed dataset of human driving at a busy urban intersection with a total of approximately 4k agents and 44k decision points, we evaluate the behaviour models on the basis of model fit to naturalistic data, as well as their predictive capacity. Our results suggest that among the behaviour models evaluated, at the level of maneuvers, modeling driving behaviour as an adaptation of the Quantal level-k model with level-0 behaviour modelled as pure rule-following provides the best fit to naturalistic driving behaviour. At the level of trajectories, bounds sampling of actions and a maxmax non-strategic models is the most accurate within the set of models in comparison. We also find a significant impact of situational factors on the performance of behaviour models.

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