论文标题

使用模糊理论量化风险评估的不确定性

Quantifying Uncertainty in Risk Assessment using Fuzzy Theory

论文作者

Fakhravar, Hengameh

论文摘要

风险专家试图更好地了解风险,并使用复杂的模型进行风险评估,而许多风险尚未得到充分了解。缺乏经验数据以及复杂的因果关系和结果关系使得难以估计某些风险类型的暴露程度。传统风险模型基于经典集合理论。相比之下,模糊逻辑模型建立在模糊集理论上,对于分析知识不足或数据不准确的风险非常有用。模糊逻辑系统有助于使大规模的风险管理框架更加简单。对于没有适当概率模型的风险,模糊的逻辑系统可以帮助建模因果关系,评估风险敞口的水平,以一致的方式对关键风险进行排名,并考虑可用的数据和专家。此外,在模糊逻辑系统中,某些规则明确解释了模型因素之间的联系,依赖性和关系。这可以帮助识别降低风险解决方案。资源可用于减轻风险很高,暴露水平很高,对冲成本相对较低。模糊集和模糊逻辑模型可以与贝叶斯和其他类型的方法识别和决策模型一起使用,包括人工神经网络和决策树模型。这些开发的模型有可能解决困难的风险评估问题。本研究论文探讨了模糊逻辑模型可用于改善风险评估和风险决策的领域。我们将讨论在风险评估中使用模糊逻辑系统的方法,框架和过程。

Risk specialists are trying to understand risk better and use complex models for risk assessment, while many risks are not yet well understood. The lack of empirical data and complex causal and outcome relationships make it difficult to estimate the degree to which certain risk types are exposed. Traditional risk models are based on classical set theory. In comparison, fuzzy logic models are built on fuzzy set theory and are useful for analyzing risks with insufficient knowledge or inaccurate data. Fuzzy logic systems help to make large-scale risk management frameworks more simple. For risks that do not have an appropriate probability model, a fuzzy logic system can help model the cause and effect relationships, assess the level of risk exposure, rank key risks in a consistent way, and consider available data and experts'opinions. Besides, in fuzzy logic systems, some rules explicitly explain the connection, dependence, and relationships between model factors. This can help identify risk mitigation solutions. Resources can be used to mitigate risks with very high levels of exposure and relatively low hedging costs. Fuzzy set and fuzzy logic models can be used with Bayesian and other types of method recognition and decision models, including artificial neural networks and decision tree models. These developed models have the potential to solve difficult risk assessment problems. This research paper explores areas in which fuzzy logic models can be used to improve risk assessment and risk decision making. We will discuss the methodology, framework, and process of using fuzzy logic systems in risk assessment.

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