论文标题
抗感染行为对传染病的平衡状态的影响
Effects of anti-infection behavior on the equilibrium states of an infectious disease
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一个数学模型，以分析抗感染行为对传染病均衡状态的影响。抗感染行为通过将整个人群的行为采用率视为附加变量，将反感染行为纳入经典的流行病学SIR模型。我们还使用动态回报函数和其他微分方程对疾病进化产生的采用率的影响。该模型的平衡状态具有显着的特征：两个局部稳定的流行平衡的可能共存，局部稳定的地方性和无病平衡的共存，甚至可能存在稳定的流行平衡点的连续性。我们展示了如何使用获得的一些结果来支持战略规划，从而从长远来看有效控制该疾病。
We propose a mathematical model to analyze the effects of anti-infection behavior on the equilibrium states of an infectious disease. The anti-infection behavior is incorporated into a classical epidemiological SIR model, by considering the behavior adoption rate across the population as an additional variable. We consider also the effects on the adoption rate produced by the disease evolution, using a dynamic payoff function and an additional differential equation. The equilibrium states of the proposed model have remarkable characteristics: possible coexistence of two locally stable endemic equilibria, the coexistence of locally stable endemic and disease-free equilibria, and even the possibility of a stable continuum of endemic equilibrium points. We show how some of the results obtained may be used to support strategic planning leading to effective control of the disease in the long-term.
