论文标题

我们可以信任标准化的死亡率吗?基于公理要求的正式分析和评估

Can we trust the standardized mortality ratio? A formal analysis and evaluation based on axiomatic requirements

论文作者

Roessler, Martin, Schmitt, Jochen, Schoffer, Olaf

论文摘要

背景:标准化死亡率(SMR)通常用于评估和比较医院的表现。尽管人们已经认识到,由于患者组成的差异,医院的SMR可能有所不同,但对SMR的该特性缺乏严格的分析(在很大程度上无法识别)。方法:本文提出了适当的标准死亡率措施的五个公理要求:严格的单调性,案例混合不敏感性,规模不敏感性,等价原理和优势原理。鉴于这些公理要求,使用基本代数和微积分检查了患者组成,医院大小以及实际和预期死亡率的变化对SMR的影响。在这方面,我们使用基于数据集(包括考虑的医院)(内部标准化)的数据集获得的预期死亡率(外部标准化)(外部标准化)(外部标准化)(外部标准化)(内部标准化)来区分标准化。结果:在外部标准化下,SMR满足了严格的单调性和规模不敏感的公理要求,但违反了案例混合性不敏感性,等效原则和优势原理的要求。在外部标准化下未满足的所有公理要求在内部标准化下也无法满足。此外,内部标准化下的SMR对尺度敏感,违反了严格单调性的公理要求。结论:在外部(内部)标准化下,SMR仅满足五个拟议的公理要求中的两个(无)。通常,除非医院在这些特征上相同,否则医院的SMR受到差异以及实际和预期死亡率的差异的影响。这些属性阻碍了基于SMR的医院绩效的有效评估和比较。

Background: The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) is often used to assess and compare hospital performance. While it has been recognized that hospitals may differ in their SMRs due to differences in patient composition, there is a lack of rigorous analysis of this and other - largely unrecognized - properties of the SMR. Methods: This paper proposes five axiomatic requirements for adequate standardized mortality measures: strict monotonicity, case-mix insensitivity, scale insensitivity, equivalence principle, and dominance principle. Given these axiomatic requirements, effects of variations in patient composition, hospital size, and actual and expected mortality rates on the SMR were examined using basic algebra and calculus. In this regard, we distinguished between standardization using expected mortality rates derived from a different dataset (external standardization) and standardization based on a dataset including the considered hospitals (internal standardization). Results: Under external standardization, the SMR fulfills the axiomatic requirements of strict monotonicity and scale insensitivity but violates the requirement of case-mix insensitivity, the equivalence principle, and the dominance principle. All axiomatic requirements not fulfilled under external standardization are also not fulfilled under internal standardization. In addition, the SMR under internal standardization is scale sensitive and violates the axiomatic requirement of strict monotonicity. Conclusions: The SMR fulfills only two (none) out of the five proposed axiomatic requirements under external (internal) standardization. Generally, the SMRs of hospitals are differently affected by variations in case mix and actual and expected mortality rates unless the hospitals are identical in these characteristics. These properties hamper valid assessment and comparison of hospital performance based on the SMR.

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