论文标题
评估复制成功的怀疑贝叶斯因素
The sceptical Bayes factor for the assessment of replication success
论文作者
论文摘要
复制研究越来越多地进行，但没有建立的复制成功统计标准。我们提出了一种新型方法，将反向bayes分析与贝叶斯假设检验结合在一起：确定持怀疑态度的效果大小，以使原始发现不再令人信服。然后，此先验与先验的倡导（基于原始研究的效果大小的参考后验）形成鲜明对比，并且如果复制数据在比原始数据更高的水平上倡导对持怀疑态度的先验的倡导，则将复制成功声明，而复制数据则比原始数据更高。怀疑的贝叶斯因素是可以声明复制成功的最高水平。与现有方法的比较表明，持怀疑态度的贝叶斯因子结合了几种可复制性：它确保两项研究都表现出足够的证据反对无效，并惩罚了其效应估计的不相容性。分析渐近性能和错误率以及社会科学复制项目的案例研究显示了该方法评估可复制性的优势。
Replication studies are increasingly conducted but there is no established statistical criterion for replication success. We propose a novel approach combining reverse-Bayes analysis with Bayesian hypothesis testing: a sceptical prior is determined for the effect size such that the original finding is no longer convincing in terms of a Bayes factor. This prior is then contrasted to an advocacy prior (the reference posterior of the effect size based on the original study), and replication success is declared if the replication data favour the advocacy over the sceptical prior at a higher level than the original data favoured the sceptical prior over the null hypothesis. The sceptical Bayes factor is the highest level where replication success can be declared. A comparison to existing methods reveals that the sceptical Bayes factor combines several notions of replicability: it ensures that both studies show sufficient evidence against the null and penalises incompatibility of their effect estimates. Analysis of asymptotic properties and error rates, as well as case studies from the Social Sciences Replication Project show the advantages of the method for the assessment of replicability.
