论文标题
政策制定者应该信任综合指数吗？关于政策形成不适当指数的陷阱的评论
Should policy makers trust composite indices? A commentary on the pitfalls of inappropriate indices for policy formation
论文作者
论文摘要
本文批判性地讨论了全球指数的使用和优点，尤其是在迫在眉睫的危机中，如当前的大流行，全球卫生安全指数或GHSI（Cameron et 2019）（Cameron et 2019）。在发生大流行或其他生物学威胁的情况下，该指数根据其预期的准备，将195个国家排名195个国家。 COVID-19大流行提供了背景，将每个国家的GHSI预测表现与实际绩效进行比较。通常，预测的性能与实际表现之间存在倒置的关系，即预测的最佳性能者是最严重的人。显然，这反映了该指数在即将到来的危机管理中的潜在政策用途。该论文还使用两个不同的数据集，其中一组来自世界表，涉及Covid-19-19-Pandemics的传播，另一个来自INSA政策跟踪器的数据集，以在29个选定国家的实际引入大流行反应政策与相应的死亡率进行实际引入之间进行比较。
This paper critically discusses the use and merits of global indices, in particular, the Global Health Security Index or GHSI (Cameron et 2019) in times of an imminent crisis, like the current pandemic. The index ranked 195 countries according to their expected preparedness in case of a pandemic or other biological threat. The Covid-19 pandemic provides the background to compare each country's predicted performance from the GHSI with the actual performance. In general, there is an inverted relation between predicted versus actual performance, i.e. the predicted top performers are among those that are the worst hit. Obviously, this reflects poorly on the potential policy uses of the index in imminent crisis management. The paper also uses two different data sets, one from the Worldmeter on the spread of the Covid-19 pandemics, and the other one from the INGSA policy tracker, to make comparisons between the actual introduction of pandemic response policies and the corresponding death rate in 29 selected countries.
