论文标题
建模渐进的社会意识，封锁和人为迁移对流行动态的影响
Modelling the influence of progressive social awareness, lockdown and anthropogenic migration on the dynamics of an epidemic
论文作者
论文摘要
扩展了基本的易感感染的（SIR）模型，包括进行性社会意识，封锁和人为迁移的影响。发现社会意识可以通过降低基本的繁殖率$ r_0 $有效地包含差异。有趣的是，在一个社会中，人们发现意识更为有效，而这个社会可以比较慢的回应更快地采用这种意识。本文还将死亡率分数与临床恢复的分数分开，并试图在缺乏和存在社会意识的情况下对锁定结果进行建模。可以看出，封锁的交错出口不仅在经济上有益，而且有助于遏制感染蔓延。此外，发现具有渐进式社会意识的交错退出策略是最有效的干预措施。本文还探讨了在两区场景中人为迁移对流行病动力学的影响。计算产生不同区域中不同部分的不同演变。这样的模型可以方便地将大区域划分为较小的子区域的策略，以使其不成比例地施加锁定，或者是从一个锁定中出口。在印度背景下，与SARS-COV-2病原体一致的参数完成计算。
The basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is extended to include effects of progressive social awareness, lockdowns and anthropogenic migration. It is found that social awareness can effectively contain the spread by lowering the basic reproduction rate $R_0$. Interestingly, the awareness is found to be more effective in a society which can adopt the awareness faster compared to the one having a slower response. The paper also separates the mortality fraction from the clinically recovered fraction and attempts to model the outcome of lockdowns, in absence and presence of social awareness. It is seen that staggered exits from lockdowns are not only economically beneficial but also helps to curb the infection spread. Moreover, a staggered exit strategy with progressive social awareness is found to be the most efficient intervention. The paper also explores the effects of anthropogenic migration on the dynamics of the epidemic in a two-zone scenario. The calculations yield dissimilar evolution of different fractions in different zones. Such models can be convenient to strategize the division of a large zone into smaller sub-zones for a disproportionate imposition of lockdown, or, an exit from one. Calculations are done with parameters consistent with the SARS-COV-2 pathogen in the Indian context.
