论文标题
一种新的动态模型，以预测政府决策对COVID-19的进度的影响
A New Dynamic Model to Predict the Effects of Governmental Decisions on the Progress of the CoViD-19 Epidemic
论文作者
论文摘要
我们建立了一个新颖的数学模型，该模型考虑了病毒传播的各个方面，包括基于潜在时期的传播，人类传播环境，政府决策和控制措施。为此，已经提出了一个带有八个批次（子群体）的隔室模型，并进行了一组微分方程的模拟，以显示各种涉及参数的效果。同样，为了取得更准确的结果并更接近现实，已经提出了一些新的阶级功能观点，其中提出了包含传输速率，死亡率，恢复速率等的微分方程系统的系数。结果：首先，已经显示了伊朗和意大利所提出模型的效率，这完全表示我们模型在预测流行进步及其矩行为方面的灵活性。该模型表明，重新开放的计划和政府措施直接影响了该疾病的主动病例的数量。此外，它已经指定，即使释放一小部分人口（约2-3％）也可能导致活跃患者的严重增加，因此疾病进展中有多波浪。已经获得了该国的医疗保健能力的影响（定量），清楚地表明了这种情况的重要性。已经研究了控制策略，包括严格实施缓解措施（降低传输率）和一部分人口的重新汇率，并已显示其效率。
We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and control measures. To accomplish this, a compartmental model with eight batches (sub-population groups) has been proposed and the simulation of the set of differential equations has been conducted to show the effects of the various involved parameters. Also, to achieve more accurate results and closer to reality, the coefficients of a system of differential equations containing transmission rates, death rates, recovery rates and etc. have been proposed by some new step-functions viewpoint. Results: First of all, the efficiency of the proposed model has been shown for Iran and Italy, which completely denoted the flexibility of our model for predicting the epidemic progress and its moment behavior. The model has shown that the reopening plans and governmental measures directly affect the number of active cases of the disease. Also, it has specified that even releasing a small portion of the population (about 2-3 percent) can lead to a severe increase in active patients and consequently multiple waves in the disease progress. The effects of the healthcare capacities of the country have been obtained (quantitatively), which clearly specify the importance of this context. Control strategies including strict implementation of mitigation (reducing the transmission rates) and re-quarantine of some portion of population have been investigated and their efficiency has been shown.
