论文标题
XNAP:通过使用LRP来解释基于LSTM的下一个活动预测
XNAP: Making LSTM-based Next Activity Predictions Explainable by Using LRP
论文作者
论文摘要
预测业务流程监控(PBPM)是一类技术,旨在预测运行轨迹中的行为,例如下一个活动。 PBPM技术旨在通过为过程分析师提供预测,从而在决策中提供支持,以提高过程绩效。但是,PBPM技术的有限预测质量被认为是在实践中建立此类技术的重要障碍。通过使用深神经网络(DNN),对于下一个活动预测等任务,技术的预测质量可以改善。尽管DNN达到了有希望的预测质量,但由于其层次结构的学习表征方法,它们仍然缺乏可理解。然而,过程分析师需要理解预测的原因,以确定可能影响决策以确保过程绩效的干预机制。在本文中,我们提出了XNAP,这是第一个可解释的基于DNN的PBPM技术,用于下一个活动预测。 XNAP从可解释的人工智能领域中整合了层面相关性的传播方法,以预测长期记忆的长期记忆DNN DNN可以通过为活动提供相关性值来解释。我们通过两个现实生活中的事件日志展示了方法的好处。
Predictive business process monitoring (PBPM) is a class of techniques designed to predict behaviour, such as next activities, in running traces. PBPM techniques aim to improve process performance by providing predictions to process analysts, supporting them in their decision making. However, the PBPM techniques` limited predictive quality was considered as the essential obstacle for establishing such techniques in practice. With the use of deep neural networks (DNNs), the techniques` predictive quality could be improved for tasks like the next activity prediction. While DNNs achieve a promising predictive quality, they still lack comprehensibility due to their hierarchical approach of learning representations. Nevertheless, process analysts need to comprehend the cause of a prediction to identify intervention mechanisms that might affect the decision making to secure process performance. In this paper, we propose XNAP, the first explainable, DNN-based PBPM technique for the next activity prediction. XNAP integrates a layer-wise relevance propagation method from the field of explainable artificial intelligence to make predictions of a long short-term memory DNN explainable by providing relevance values for activities. We show the benefit of our approach through two real-life event logs.