论文标题
关于共vid-19的动力学的经验模型传播在人口中
An empirical model on the dynamics of Covid-19 spread in human population
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一个数学模型，以分析正在进行的大流行区域中一个地区感染人群中感染人群总数的时间演变。使用COVID-19的可用数据在各个国家 /地区感染人群，我们制定了一个模型，该模型可以成功跟踪从初期到饱和度的时间演变，在给定的这种传染病浪潮中。它涉及一组有效参数，可以从可用数据中提取。使用这些参数，也可以预测疾病扩散的未来轨迹。还提出了一组微分方程，其解决方案是这些时间演化轨迹。使用这种形式主义，我们将感染的未来时间演变轨迹投射到许多国家感染仍在迅速上升的国家中。
We propose a mathematical model to analyze the time evolution of the total number of infected population with Covid-19 disease at a region in the ongoing pandemic. Using the available data of Covid-19 infected population on various countries we formulate a model which can successfully track the time evolution from early days to the saturation period in a given wave of this infectious disease. It involves a set of effective parameters which can be extracted from the available data. Using those parameters the future trajectories of the disease spread can also be projected. A set of differential equations is also proposed whose solutions are these time evolution trajectories. Using such a formalism we project the future time evolution trajectories of infection spread for a number of countries where the Covid-19 infection is still rapidly rising.
