论文标题
黎巴嫩冠状病毒病（COVID-19）传播的建模和模拟
Modeling and Simulation of the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Lebanon
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们为冠状病毒疾病的传播开发了一个概率数学模型（Covid-19）。它考虑了该疾病的已知特殊特征，例如传染性病例的存在以及受感染者的社会和感染条件的不同。特别是，它考虑了一个国家 /地区的社会结构和政府措施，实际受感染案件中被发现的案件的一部分以及来自边界外未发现的受感染者的涌入。尽管该模型很简单，并且可以合理地识别其参数，但使用地方当局提供的有关该大流行的数据，它也足够复杂，可以捕获最重要的效果。我们研究了黎巴嫩的特殊案例，并使用其报告的数据来估计模型参数，这对于估计Covid-19在其他国家 /地区的传播可能是感兴趣的。我们在报告的数据与我们的模型给出的估计之间显示了一个很好的一致性。我们还模拟了几种情况，这些情况可以帮助决策者决定如何放松不同的措施，而不会冒着严重浪潮19的风险。我们还能够确定导致特定情况的主要因素，从而有助于更好地理解病毒的传播。
In this paper, we develop a probabilistic mathematical model for the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). It takes into account the known special characteristics of this disease such as the existence of infectious undetected cases and the different social and infectiousness conditions of infected people. In particular, it considers the social structure and governmental measures in a country, the fraction of detected cases over the real total infected cases, and the influx of undetected infected people from outside the borders. Although the model is simple and allows a reasonable identification of its parameters, using the data provided by local authorities on this pandemic, it is also complex enough to capture the most important effects. We study the particular case of Lebanon and use its reported data to estimate the model parameters, which can be of interest for estimating the spread of COVID-19 in other countries. We show a good agreement between the reported data and the estimations given by our model. We also simulate several scenarios that help policy makers in deciding how to loosen different measures without risking a severe wave of COVID-19. We are also able to identify the main factors that lead to specific scenarios which helps in a better understanding of the spread of the virus.
