论文标题
使用固定及广泛分裂的短期可靠性评估生成系统
Short-Term Reliability Evaluation of Generating Systems Using Fixed-Effort Generalized Splitting
论文作者
论文摘要
短期可靠性评估技术为电力系统操作期间风险知名决策提供了一种合理的方法。现有的可靠性评估技术涉及巨大的计算负担，因此不适用于系统操作期间的短期可靠性评估。为此，本文提出了一种计算效率的方法，用于对风的生成系统的短期可靠性评估。所提出的方法利用了固定效力的概括分裂（FEG）技术，这是重要性分裂的一种变体。为了实现FEG的实现，还提出了Markov Chain Monte-Carlo（MCMC）的组件大都市杂货（MH）算法的离散版本。此外，提出的FEGS方法扩展了，以考虑风的不确定性和负载需求。仿真结果表明，与粗糙的蒙特卡洛模拟（CMC）相比，所提出的方法能够评估计算负担低的短期可靠性指数。此外，进一步的仿真结果表明，风产生和负载需求对短期可靠性指数的影响。
The short-term reliability evaluation techniques provide a rational approach for risk-informed decision making during power system operation. The existing reliability assessment techniques involve large computational burden and therefore are not directly applicable for short-term reliability evaluation during system operation. To this end, this paper presents a computationally-efficient approach for short-term reliability evaluation of wind-integrated generating systems. The proposed approach makes use of the fixed-effort generalized splitting (FEGS) technique, which is a variant of importance splitting. To realize the implementation of FEGS, a discrete version of component-wise Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm for Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) is also presented. Besides, the proposed FEGS approach is extended to take the uncertainties of wind generation and load demand into account. The simulation results indicate that, in comparison to crude Monte-Carlo simulation (CMCS), the proposed approach is able to evaluate short-term reliability indices with a low computational burden. Moreover, further simulation results indicate the impacts of uncertainties of wind generation and load demand on short-term reliability indices.
